What Will Decide the Fate of Upcoming State Assembly Elections?
The upcoming State Assembly Elections seem to be fighting on two fronts: consolidation of majoritarianism and growing economic inequality. In mid-December 2021, a religious assembly of Hindu ascetics (Dharam Sansad) was held in Uttarakhand’s Haridwar where multiple speakers called for genocide of Muslims and other minorities in India. The hate speech received condemnation from diaspora groups, students, academics, bureaucrats, former chiefs of staff of the Armed Forces, and top lawyers who wrote letters to the government of India and to the Supreme Court. In response to the petitions filed by activists, the Supreme Court of India issued notices to the Uttarakhand Government. However, mainstream media outlets have not even given enough attention during their prime time coverage to an event that calls for genocide. Majoritarianism has become a potential threat to civic and democratic values in recent times, however, it often escapes from being called out by the mainstream media and political leaders because they claim a natural positionality in the society.
After public pressure mounted, the police arrested two of the speakers and their trial is pending. Haridwar was not only an instance of hate being propagated openly but a larger pattern of the culture of impunity and violence against minorities in India. Ever since the Narendra Modi-led government of National Democratic Alliance (NDA) came into power in 2014, the country has been witnessed a sharp increase in mob lynching targeting Muslims, Dalits, and Tribals. Violence against marginalized social groups has a history in India, but the current political environment places these actions in normative social order which is leading to further marginalization. This placement should not be seen in isolation as it is an attempt to establish the power of majority and threatens the social fabric of one of the largest democracies in the world. The Prime Minister of India has remained silent despite members of his party attending the Sansad in Haridwar showing the implicitness of the ruling establishment in propagating a culture of hate and impunity.
Hate speeches and incitement to violence have become a centerpiece of the political calculus for the BJP that has made sweeping political gains in the recent past at the national level and in states by consolidating the Hindu vote. The ruling party currently does not have a single Member of Parliament (MP) in the lower house seems to be a deliberate decision as, in the book, Majoritarian State: How Hindu Nationalism Is Changing India, Christophe Jaffrelot argues,
“The BJP decision not to field any Muslim candidates aimed to liberate the party entirely from the ‘Muslim vote’ that other parties were accused of wooing for electoral gain at the expense of the Hindu majority.”
The manufactured narrative of ‘appeasement’ has forced opposition parties to field fewer Muslim candidates in elections who lag on many development indicators including education, health, employment, and political representation. This precariousness has not only increased as Muslims have been largely excluded from the political and development discourse but left them in a vulnerable position and easy scapegoats with no political cost to political parties.
This growing consolidation of majoritarian power in the country has left religious minorities to suffer with no outlet, neither political nor institutional, to express their anxieties. However, anxiety is not only growing among religious minorities but also among multiple other subsections of society such as the unemployed youth, women, and farmers. Besides, propagation of a culture of impunity and decisions such as demonetising Indian currency of denomination of 500 and 1000 overnight and flawed implementation of the Goods and Service Tax (GST) are tearing apart the social fabric of Indian society and have contracted the once growing Indian economy. Jobs have been diminishing in India even before the pandemic – the unemployment rate in 2019 hit a 45 year high in the country as per the National Sample Survey Office’s PLES survey. COVID-19 has further worsened these situations as India’s unemployment rate crept up to nearly 8% in December 2021, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), an independent think tank. Currently, the unemployment rate stands at 6.57 per cent in January 2022 which, along with the high inflation, is becoming a central issue in the State Assembly Elections.
The mismanagement of COVID-19 is also a political issue in upcoming elections as people were left to suffer and fend for themselves, particularly in the second wave in March 2021. Currently (03 February 2022) with a total of 4.18 crore COVID-19 cases and a death toll almost touching half a million, India is among the worst affected countries in the world with a largely fragmented healthcare system. If news reports are to be believed, the number of deaths are many more than the official figures. Since the first wave hit India in March 2020, the central government has been repeatedly questioned over its preparedness strategies. And this came to light in March 2021, when people were left without critical medicines, oxygen supply, and hospital beds. As helplessness gripped the country, 100s of people died in their homes or while waiting outside hospitals for beds. Social media channels, particularly Twitter, was flooded with appeals for support. Graveyards and crematoriums alike were overrun by bodies, with shocking visuals of corpses floating in the Ganga River flashing across screens nationwide.
Along with the issues of unemployment, inflation, and COVID-19 mismanagement, farmers have become skeptical of the lofty promises of the BJP, particularly in the backdrop of three farm laws against which farmers have protested for a year in and outside the periphery of national capital and forced the government to withdraw the laws. In the backdrop of upcoming elections in 5 states including Uttar Pradesh (UP), public resentment against the incumbent BJP governments are growing, particularly against UP’s chief minister Yogi Adityanath. His government is also facing heat because of the lawlessness that has prevailed during his regime, such as incidents like Unnao, Lakhimpur Kheri which have failed to produce confidence in him among the masses.
As the 2022 State Assembly Elections approach, divisive political campaigns are also gaining momentum which can be seen in the speeches and in tweets of political leaders. However, it remains to be seen which issues will drive the voters, particularly in the context of a divisive information sphere.
This piece was written by Tanweer Alam, one of USIPI’s 2022 Non-Resident Research Fellows.